The newly enacted tax law will create a more favorable tax climate for the business community, which should spur job and economic growth and keep single-family housing production on a gradual upward trajectory in 2018, according to economists speaking at the NAHB International Builders’ Show® Jan. 9.
“We expect that tax reform will boost GDP growth to 2.6 percent in 2018, and this added economic activity will also bode well for housing, although there will be some transition effects in high-tax jurisdictions,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Ongoing job creation, expected wage increases and tight existing home inventory will also boost the housing market in the year ahead.”
However, builders will continue to deal with ongoing supply-side headwinds this year that will dampen more robust growth. These factors include an increasing number of unfilled construction jobs, a shortage of buildable lots and a slow growth in acquisition, development and construction loan activity that is failing to keep pace with rising demand.
In addition, regulatory costs stemming from building codes, land use, environmental and other rules have jumped 29 percent in the past five years, and this has had a significant impact on housing affordability. The ongoing U.S.–Canada softwood lumber trade dispute is further exacerbating the situation, as the price of softwood lumber has increased 20 percent from a year ago.
The Forecast. As the economy continues to strengthen, NAHB expects 30-year fixed-rate mortgages will average 4.31 percent in 2018 and 4.82 percent in 2019.
NAHB is projecting 1.21 million total housing starts in 2017 and expects overall production to grow an additional 2.7 percent this year to 1.25 million units.
Single-family starts are expected to rise 5 percent in 2018 to 893,000 units and increase an additional 5 percent to 940,000 next year.
Setting the 2000–2003 period as a benchmark for normal single-family housing activity when single-family production averaged 1.3 million units annually, single-family starts are expected to gradually rise from 63 percent of what is considered a typical market in the third quarter of 2017 to 73 percent of normal by the fourth quarter of 2019.
On the multifamily side, NAHB is expecting multifamily starts to edge 1.6 percent lower this year to 354,000 units from a projected 360,000 total in 2017. This is a sustainable level due to demographics and the balance between supply and demand.
Meanwhile home remodeling is posting strong market conditions, due in part to strong demand in the wake of the terrible hurricane and wildfire season in 2017. Residential remodeling activity is expected to register a 7 percent gain in 2018 over last year.
Healthy Housing Markets. Delving beneath the national numbers, David Berson, senior vice president and chief economist at Nationwide Insurance, said the vast majority of local housing markets are healthy and faring well.
Berson lists 324 markets as positive, 69 as neutral and just seven as negative. While job gains, household formations and mortgage markets still look good, he noted that rapid price increases are concerning.
Comparing current conditions with the housing boom a decade ago, Berson noted that the market is supply constrained today, but wasn’t during the boom. And mortgage credit, while more readily available than just a few years ago, remains far limited relative to the market peak in 2007.
While he anticipates a slightly more rapid rise in mortgage interest rates this year, Berson said it should not hurt housing activity.