“You never know what you don’t know until you know.” I start
this month’s article with these words because I am writing in
response to an article that appeared in April’s AWCI’s Construction
Dimensions. I am speaking about the article titled The Art
of the Bid by S.S. Saucerman. In his article, the author discusses
the “human intuitive qualities that separate the good estimator
from the truly great.” While this is a worthy subject, the perspective
of the article illustrates a lack of understanding that the
typical estimator for a general contractor has for the tasks we specialty
contractor estimators have to perform on a daily basis.
He wrote: “Estimating the cost of a construction project
whether it be the smallest garden sheds or the most massive skyscraper is still at any level only a game of Tinker Toys.” With
all due respect to the author and his 26 years of experience at the
general contractor level, this statement clearly shows that the GC
has no clue as to the difficulty subcontractors have in determining
what the cost should be for a project, and he has no idea of
what skills an estimator must have to become a truly great estimator
for a subcontractor.
To be a truly great estimator, you must first have the uncanny
ability to get inside the head of the architect and understand his
“intent.” Today more than ever, the drawings are not complete.
The estimating process must be based on the ability of the estimator
to understand what it is the architect wants. Estimates have
to be based on something, and in the absence of clear details, the
estimator must substitute his/her own knowledge and experience.
That being said, to become a truly great estimator, you must have
a thorough knowledge of trades you estimate and to acquire that,
it usually takes years of experience. Since most architects do not
know what types of materials are best used for specific instances,
and/or they do not know how to detail the construction processes
necessary to construct the building, the estimator must be able
to provide that knowledge.
One of the most difficult things in estimating for a specialty contractor
is to accurately estimate the costs for labor and material.
This is where the GC estimator has no real understanding of our
work—and why should he? Estimating for a GC typically means
that you are able to get input from and base your price on the
bids of others—so why would you ever have to understand how
difficult it is to accurately estimate costs?
The truly great estimator must be able to predict labor costs. This
is the most difficult thing we do. Why? First, most of us do not
keep accurate records of productivity, so we don’t have a good
basis of historical data to use to guess the rate. Since labor is a substantial
percentage of our estimated costs, we have to do a lot of
guessing, and the truly great estimator must be able to consistently
guess accurately. A too-high evaluation of costs means we
will not be successful bidder, and a too low evaluation means we
will not be a successful contractor. Second, there is a good deal
of change from project to project that substantially affect labor
productivity. For example, a soffit seems like a simple thing to
quantify and estimate, but a soffit can be a simple drop framed
from a suspended ceiling, or it can be a complex metal framed
system supported using all kinds of angles, bolts and welds that
make the lineal foot price so completely different. Finally, there
are many intangibles to predicting costs. Construction sequence
and/or schedule, safety and access to the work all can substantially
alter costs. These costs are not known at the time of bid, but
the truly great estimator must be able to gather all the information
and make a guess that will stand the test of time.
In conclusion, I say to the author, that estimating costs is not similar
to a game of Tinker Toys, and I take offense at the comparison
of the work that I perform to such a childish act. But, you
don’t know what you don’t know until you know. I would love
for you to spend some time as an estimator for a specialty contractor,
not just as an observer, but as someone whose career and
livelihood depends on your ability to accurately predict costs.
Maybe then you will be able to know the skills necessary to
become a truly great estimator.
Comments? Send your e-mails to [email protected], or fax to
(703) 534-8307.
