In my esteemed capacity as senior estimator, I am constantly compelled to dismiss a plethora of sometimes absurd questions presented by prospective “bidmeisters.” Of all the frivolous inquiries proposed by my upstart associates, the most frequently asked question usually goes something like this: “what is the most typically perplexing factor posed by a commercial drywall estimator?” Of course, I must laugh out loud because there is no way to single out an answer to this riddle, as the possibilities are manifold.
If compelled to respond on the most elusive sole factor to quantify, I suppose the most obvious standout reply would have to focus on labor—most specifically on productivities. I mean, who can accurately foresee how much linear footage of full-height wall a journeyman carpenter can crank out in an hour? But somebody does. Even within the nebulous nature of labor production, an astute estimator has the advantage of historical data—tables of past performances broken into predictive per-unit quantities that allow an estimator to grope around in the otherwise shrouded world of labor costs.
A less likely reply might entail the price of material. While material costs were once a solid predictive factor, the roller-coaster rides we’ve experienced in recent years render the term “fixed cost” a museum piece. To this day, I can’t tell you what the cost per square foot of 5/8-inch board will be next week, let alone next year. And so, we might add material pricing to the list of possible candidates to the mystery factor.
Yet a third prospect for the elusive “greased pig award” lies with the surplus of ambiguity among the ranks of so-called “design professionals” (architects). Okay, over the years this column has been rife with examples of “GOTCHAs”—instances in which details vital to an estimate were (perhaps evasively?) omitted in the design. Call it mere negligence if you will, but every time an unsuspecting bidmeister downloads a set of plans, he is walking into a veritable mine field of GOTCHAs.
But neither ambiguous plan details, nor cryptic labor rates, nor fluctuating material prices can trump the crowning glory of unknowable factors. Of course I am referring to that “man behind the curtain,” AKA the other guy. Clearly, the other guy (the competition) is the least predictable element in the entire world of estimating. Experience dictates that even the most completely perfected bid—all I’s dotted and tees crossed—can be upended by an off-the-wall number tossed out by a competitor with basement-level margins, or a low-balling newcomer.
The example of a poker table might be instructive as a model. An assembly of five would be typical, one consisting of yourself, two mainstay adversaries, one upstart contender, and one complete outsider. One can easily see that the possible combinations of likely unknowns are unknowable, but nevertheless worthy of further examination.
The mainstays are stable adversaries (like yourself) who can generate the kind of reasonably accurate number that tends to cluster at bidtime. You might not go so far as to call them predictable, and even though they play their cards close to the breast, acquainted rivals likely retain some valuable information that might be advantageous to your position. Your approach to their secrecy can be either indirect or firsthand.
There are several secondary sources that can provide indirect contact with familiar adversaries. Ironically, a friendly general contractor, while maintaining the appearance of objectivity, might inadvertently drop a helpful hint or two, and even divulging the innocuous tip of who the potential bidders may be, can prove invaluable. Other secondary sources of inside info might include second-tier subs, material suppliers, union representatives, and even recent defectors—newly hired crossovers from the other side with an axe to grind (everything is fair game at the bid table).
Of course, the best source of information associated with an upcoming bid comes directly from the rival’s mouth. There is much to be said of the well-worn adage, “keep your friends close, and your enemies closer.” The instances in which rival counterparts brush shoulders are numerous and seem to intensify close to bid time. Coincidental attendance of common functions such as award ceremonies, trade seminars, pre-bid meetings, and union events, make rivalry interaction inevitable. During such interactions the subject of the upcoming bid is bound to arise, and informational tidbits are commonly exchanged (particularly when adult beverage is involved) and, as they say, loose lips sink ships.
But if mainstays were the only competitors in our bid model of a poker hand, a bidmeister’s enigma would be reduced to manageable levels. Unfortunately, there are two other contenders at the table to deal with, and the potential worth of their cards is quite opaque.
One of the enigmatic pairs is an unestablished upstart who is out to break into a game that is somewhat beyond his grasp. His inexperience combined with his desperation can create the potential for an outlier number that cannot be reasonably matched. The saving grace lies with an astute general contractor that may or may not smell the likelihood of an unwelcome bust, in which case this newbie will be written off along with his underqualified bid. Or not.
The final contender regularly resorts to flouting the labor laws by designating regular employees as “specialty contractors,” by or cheating on means and methods. This guy is what you would call the wild card. A general contractor or owner will use low-ballers such as these to leverage mainstays, thus keeping them in line. Unfortunately, it all too frequently works.
This missive demonstrates that the elusive other guy is clearly the most nebulous element in dealing with the many perplexities of an estimate. Wary bidmeisters should be forewarned that the cards are stacked against us when assembling a sophisticated estimate. That is why when navigating the intricacies of a commercial drywall bid, I never use cards as the final arbiter. The final statement of a complete estimate demands nothing less than a clear-eyed, detailed summation of values, accurate quantities and an expressed command over critical details. That, and a Ouija board.
Vince Bailey is an estimator/project manager in the Phoenix area.
